Flash Update No. 21
First Major Economic Benchmark Revision for 2019 Signaled
Large Downside Revisions Pending for the GDP and Retail Sales
Perfect Storm: Hit by the FOMC Tightening Too Severely in 2018,
Liquidity-Strapped Consumers Cut Retail Spending, But Full Reporting
Was Masked by 2018/2019 Partial Government Shutdown Data Disruptions
Massive, Corrective Downside Payroll Employment Benchmark Revisions
Reduced Previously Reported Annual Jobs Growth by 20% (-20%)
Benchmarked Jobs Count Cut by 514,000 (-514,000) in March 2019,
By 422,000 (-422,000) in December 2019
Retail Employment Revised Sharply Lower, Plunging for 32-Consecutive Months;
Year-to-Year Jobs Growth Has Been Negative in Every Month Since June 2017,
Except for One, Which Was Flat
Massive, Corrective Downside Benchmark Revisions for 2018/2019
Retail Sales and the GDP Should Follow in June and July 2020
Separately, Regular Year-End Census Bureau Adjustments
Reduced the Estimated U.S. Population by 811,000 (-811,000) in January 2020
As a Result, December-to-January and Year-to-Year Comparisons of Headline
Household Survey Counts Are Not Meaningful, Without Special Adjustment
January 2020 Headline U.3 Unemployment Rate Rose to 3.58%, from Its
50-Year Low of 3.50% in December 2019, Otherwise Still at a 50-Year Low;
Broader U.6 and ShadowStats Unemployment Rates Each Jumped by 0.2%